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Copyright 2014 - 2022 Jennifer Marohasy. However, it is also worth noting that the on-request service is workload dependent, and is therefore not guaranteed. Other formats To print this page, get the PDF version (one page, 45 kb ). In this case, pilots can still access the source weather data from the AWIS, although there is no verbalisation in the respective weather observations of the trigger term SPECI. The forecast TEMPO was still considered by BoM to be appropriate for the conditions; however, at around 0930, the visibility at Mildura abruptly decreased. Alternate fuel is calculated as sufficient fuel to approach the destination, conduct a missed approach and proceed to the nominated alternate airport for landing. Broadcast system components comprised a ground- or spacebased transmitter, an aircraft receiver and a portable or installed cockpit display device. The MATS also contained a section dealing with the provision of a hazard alert service. There are many more maximum temperatures measurements available for the electronic probe (n=948) than for the mercury thermometer (n=115), and the distribution is quite different, with a somewhat more normal distribution for the probe data, as shown in Figure 2. At 0800, the TTF for Adelaide showed visibility had reduced to 1 km to the north-west and that patches of fog and shallow fog were present. The PF does most of the flying, except in defined circumstances; such as planning for descent, approach and landing. To use this page in a spreadsheet, get the plain text version (4 kb). Web. A SPECI is a special weather observation report that is triggered by a significant change in a set of parameters, including cloud and visibility. In addition, the onset time of fog at Adelaide Airport that day was 40minutes later than any recorded onset time at that location in the preceding 30 years. Ltd. (Virgin). The 0303 TAF was computed on that basis. In the climb out, such as the air ambulance pilot departing Mildura Airport on the morning of the occurrence, the AIP specified that a pilot must report meteorological conditions, not previously advised, which are likely to affect the safety of aircraft operations. As such, there was no requirement for the crews of Velocity 1384 or Qantas 735 to obtain or account for a code grey forecast in their fuel planning for Adelaide. During the period prior to the occurrence involving VH-YIR and VH-VYK, there were several amendments to the AIP regarding the provision of FIS. The action by the crew of Qantas 735 at 0816 to seek additional information from ATC in relation to the clearance of the fog at Adelaide was to inform their decision-making as they approached the DPA. Please contact theSESfor further support and information about how to best prepare. They reported to Airservices that this was due to high workload at the time, and a consideration that the information in the pilots report did not differ significantly to the forecast TEMPO conditions. For regional airports, such as Mildura, the BoM relied on satellite imagery, in addition to other data, to provide indications of fog. A Notice To Airmen advises personnel concerned with flight operations of information concerning the establishment, condition or change in any aeronautical facility, service, procedure, or hazard, the timely knowledge of which is essential for safe flight. As the flight crew of Qantas 735 was preparing to depart Sydney, just prior to leaving the gate, the 0700 amended TAF for Adelaide was issued. At 0937 the crew of Qantas 735 contacted the crew of Velocity 1384 to discuss the arrival and the crew of Velocity 1384 stated that they were tracking to the initial waypoint to commence the RNAV GNSS approach to runway 27. The Brisbane and Melbourne flight information regions were listed in the section Middle East/Asia (MID/ASIA) Regional Supplementary Procedures. the development of fog depends on factors that are not well understood, fog is relatively uncommon at most airports, the required accuracy of the forecast is high. This comprised flight fuel to Adelaide of 6,410 kg, variable and fixed fuel reserves of 1,540 kg and additional fuel of 940 kg. (i) other activities likely to affect safety. This speaks volumes about their integrity and character. That is, if information about a weather deterioration was received from the BoM, and if flight watch personnel workload permitted, the information was passed to the flight crew. Obviously todays scientists are too smart for the basics. Often the reports were consistent with the forecast, or were triggered by an improvement in conditions. **** Almost immediately, the crew obtained visual reference with the runway, discontinued the missed approach procedure and landed. The flight plan provided to the crew of Velocity 1384 included the weather and NOTAMs for Mildura, as Mildura was listed as a diversion port in the event of an en route depressurisation. IN September 2017, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) claimed a series of new record hot days across south eastern Australia, including on 23 September at Mildura. The priority reflects the need to create forecasts and warnings in relation to time critical activities, such as ditching reports and search and rescue activities. The operations controller was responsible for overseeing the Virgin flight network, including coordinating air traffic control (ATC) slot times for arrivals. Why would you not have the 5 year comparison data available for validation or comparison? SPECI reports are also issued when stipulated conditions begin, end or change in intensity. This TAF predicted similar conditions as the 0303 forecast, but with the addition of a 30 per cent probability of fog developing. These occurrences were investigated by the ATSB website and are detailed below. The FO replied that they did not have the fuel to proceed anywhere else. The BoM observer at Mildura Airport advised the forecasting office that the mist and subsequent fog arrived from the south and resulted in a rapid deterioration in conditions. Link to Mildura Observations on BoM, or for more detailed weather and climatic conditions log in to Order Water. The BoMs Aviation Weather Services already has a formal process in place to conduct regularly consultative meetings/workshops with key aviation stakeholders to identify improvements and current and future requirements. On the morning on 23 June 2015, the crew of a Bombardier DHC-8, registered VH-XFQ, prepared for a flight from Perth to Darlot, Western Australia. The provision of FIS in the US has more components than the system in Australia and is supported by greater infrastructure, both groundbased and inaircraft. On the morning of the occurrence, the upper air wind flight at 0300 measured the 2,000 ft wind as being outside the fog formation envelope of the fog forecasting procedures. http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDV60801/IDV60801.94693.json. This included the 0800 TTF, which indicated the fog would dissipate by 0900. The captain held an Air Transport Pilot (Aeroplane) Licence with a Boeing 737-300 to 800endorsement and a current Class 1 Aviation Medical Certificate with various conditions. PSS I shall probably add to the above post (by way of an update) in the next day or two, with my most recent correspondence to the Head of the Bureau, Andrew Johnson. Keep at the BoM They need to understand that the comparison between technologies for temperature measurement are necessary public knowledge. This information included the current TAF at the time the crew diverted to Mildura, which forecast a TEMPO period of low cloud covering their planned arrival time. The information in amendment 58 was current at the time of the occurrence involving VHYIR and VHVYK. They had been situated within Virgins operations control centre, initially as a BoM employee, before joining a private company providing the same service to Virgin. Nevertheless, the underpinning principle that the primary function of ATS is the safe separation of aircraft, with weather avoidance as an additional service subject to workload, is consistent with the system in Australia. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late evening. The controllers were supported by aisle supervisors and a systems supervisor. Ltd. as Velocity 1384 and VH-VYK operated by Qantas Airways Ltd. as Qantas 735, were on scheduled passenger flights to Adelaide, South Australia. Pilots can ask ATC for any relevant weather information via the onrequest service. In this respect, Adelaide Airport did not meet all of the regulatory and redundancy requirements for a higher certification. Perceived conflict information between TAF and TTF as TAF can mention probabilities of 30 and 40 per cent, whereas TTF is a forecast of the most likely outcome over the next three hours. Forecast for the rest of Saturday Summary Partly cloudy. As such, the dissemination of AIREP information by ATC remains a necessary source of information for BoM and should be actioned whenever possible. The low pressure system that caused flooding in central QLD earlier this week could soon become a tropical cyclone over Madden Avenue Service Centre108 Madden Avenue, Mildura VICAustralia At 0939 the crew of a Qantaslink Bombardier DHC-8 aircraft (Dash-8) broadcast to traffic at Mildura that they were conducting a goaround. During the latter stage of the flight, unforecast fog developed at Sydney, which resulted in the deterioration of visibility to below the landing minima. 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The TTF predicted that the fog would clear at 0900and the company meteorologist called the BoM to determine the forecasters confidence that the fog would clear at 0900. Web. In addition, once the controllers workload decreased, they commenced passing the latest SPECI and amended TAF information to aircraft at Mildura. BoM reported that the fog was observed for approximately 20 minutes after the amended TAF was issued, with low cloud remaining for 45 minutes after the fog cleared. They were provided with two routine (METAR) reports for Mildura, which indicated conditions were suitable for an approach, with cloud above the landing minima and visibility in excess of 10 km. The aircraft had departed Brisbane at about 0630 that morning and carried sufficient fuel for the flight to Adelaide. It seems like the record was in better hands when nobody knew its importance they were just keeping the records for agricultural and meteorological history sake. Peters funding website is no longer accepting donations. At 0918, just after Velocity 1384 transferred to this frequency, the controller for this sector informed them of four other aircraft due to arrive at Mildura around their arrival time, which included Qantas735. ATC, FSSs and, if applicable, AOCC [airline operations control center] VHF/HF voice remain as a redundant method of communicating aviation weather, NOTAMs, and other operational information to aircraft in flight. Indeed, while it would seem reasonable to assume that there would be dozens of reports detailing the results from such parallel studies none have been made publicly available. Data from the aircrafts flight data recorder (FDR) showed that at 0933, as Velocity 1384 was on descent to Mildura, a fuel imbalance developed between the main wing tanks (No.1 and No. https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/02/16/us-big-freeze-is-adjusted-out-of-existence-by-noaa/, https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/02/17/ghcn-are-even-inflating-current-temperatures-in-new-york/, Hyping Daily Maximum Temperatures (Part 1), Happy New Highest Tide for 2023 Sunday 22nd January, Fear, Flooding, Forecasting & Australias 2022 Official Rainfall Statistics, A Note on Obfuscation, the 2022 Climate Report, and my Latest Film. State and regional weather forecasts, current conditions, Bureau of Meteorology warnings, radar and satellite animations The 0158 amended TAF for Mildura Airport was available to both flight crew and predicted a temporary deterioration (TEMPO) of the weather. The changes also resulted in any SPECI report that was available from an ABS not being sent automatically to a controllers workstation. The crew of Qantas 735 elected to hold at waypoint BLACK, which was 48 NM (89km) from Adelaide, rather than continue their descent to the airport, which was still affected by fog. At the time that Velocity 1384 and Qantas 735 switched to the Tailem Bend frequency, the last enroute frequency before Adelaide Approach, the controller queried both crews awareness of the fog at Adelaide Airport. Potts, R, Boneh, T, Manickam, M, Miao, Y, Newham, P & Weymouth, G. Application of Bayesian Networks for fog forecasting for aviation in Australia. Time: 1011 EST Velocity 1384 on final approach to runway 27 Mildura, lands at 1014 EST. Notwithstanding this industry view, there is a requirement for pilots to obtain all relevant weather information inflight to aid operational decision making. The estimated arrival time at Adelaide was 0917. In this amendment the section on the provision of FIS was changed in several areas. The AIP outlines the elements of ATC-initiated FIS. This included weather forecasts, amended forecasts and observations and reports indicating weather conditions at the destination have deteriorated below the Instrument or Visual Flight Rules alternate minima. The first SPECI indicating the presence of fog was issued at 0948, showing visibility as 900 m in fog and cloud overcast at 100 ft. Moderate Flood Warning For The Herbert River Strong Wind Warning for Leeuwin and Albany coasts. Forecasting fog for aviation purposes is known to present a number of challenges. The pilot did not specify the cloud datum, but a comparison of the reported cloud base with the observed cloud base from the Mildura Airport automated station, which was generated 2 minutes later, identified that the reported cloud base was probably with reference to mean sea level. Given the nature of the emergency, this allowed the crew to land despite the low visibility conditions. The crews estimated arrival time at Mildura was 0932. Close menu. At the time of writing, the results of this research for Mildura Airport were available and are summarised below. Safety issues, or system problems, are highlighted in bold to emphasise their importance. An ATIS provides normal operational information for the airport terminal area. At 0940 the crew of Qantas 735 contacted Velocity 1384 to advise that they were commencing the RNAV GNSS approach due fuel. As the wind was forecast to tend southerly, and fog and low cloud were rare in a southerly flow at Mildura, the decision was made to continue with the current TEMPO. A ground-based transponder station. This decision was passed to the crew of Qantas 735. This period was chosen to reflect the system after the changes to the provision of FIS in Australia were introduced in 2009. However, had the 0918 SPECI been disseminated, each crew would have been informed of the developing deterioration at Mildura. This scenario is explained in the Flight Crew Training Manual (FCTM) (see appendix A). The ATSB also found that in certain weather patterns and at certain locations, fog is both rare and difficult to forecast reliably. By this time, the flight crew had gathered the latest information about the conditions at Adelaide from multiple sources, which continued to state a forecast improvement from 0900. data from an electronic probe and mercury thermometer operating side-by-side for a period of time. examination of the relevant weather observations and forecasts. Furthermore, the BoM does not have World Meteorological Organisation, or any other form of accreditation (i.e. The captain was the pilot flying, with the FO as pilot monitoring. The closing date for feedback is 29 January 2016. METAR/SPECI are observations, not forecasts, and as such cannot be used for Flight Planning purposes, other than as a reference to determine temperature for performance purposes. set your location In addition, CASA clarified that there was no strategic difference between an in-flight scenario and a pre-flight plan in relation to the use of forecasts. In addition, the BoM uses a non-standard method of recording temperatures from such devices. In this case, controllers in adjacent sectors informed flight crew of the amended TAF and SPECIs for Adelaide from the time that the fog was included on the TTF at 0800. For all other short haul domestic flights, this service was not guaranteed, and was provided as workload permitted. However, they further stated that a pilot is able to use both a valid forecast and observation information. Web. However, this reduced their options after the unexpected need to divert from Adelaide to a suitable alternate destination. You do not have a default location set The Mallee controller acknowledged the report but, at that stage neither Velocity 1384 nor Qantas 735 were on the Mallee frequency. Good girl Jennifer. The captain obtained the TAF for Leinster, which was about 30NM (56km) to the west of Darlot and, after determining it was suitable to do so, nominated Leinster as the alternate aerodrome. However at the time of the occurrence, only Qantas had the appropriate approval from the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) to conduct autoland operations in B737 aircraft. Section 1.1.2 of the Transport Canada manual was titled Flight Advisory and Information Services and outlined the elements of the in-flight information service. The flight crew of Qantas 735 queried the fog at Adelaide Airport with the en route controller in the sector prior to Tailem Bend, at around 0816. In addition, the ATSB noted that the industry expectation for the provision of flight information services was not aligned with that provided by Airservices Australia (Airservices). Until late last year when as a consequence of my badgering Minister Frydenberg, backup by Alan Jones on radio 2GB and then a whistleblower telling me to ask for the A8 forms, we now finally have access to some parallel data for Mildura. This workload was related to the five inbound aircraft, all of which required traffic information on each other, and other aircraft within the Mallee sector. It is broadcast automatically and continuously and contains information required for takeoff and landing. I am shocked that as late as the 90s and 2000s they were not taking every precaution in preservation of a national and world treasure. At 0700, when the amended TAF for Adelaide was issued, Velocity 1384 was established at flight level (FL) 400 in the cruise. This comprised flight fuel to Adelaide of 5,000 kg, variable and fixed fuel reserves of 1,600 kg and additional fuel of 1,300 kg. Most broadcasts are continuous and the information is updated every minute. At 1130, the visibility had increased to greater than 10 km and the cloud was now listed as few at 300 ft. Further information on the Adelaide and Mildura forecasts and observations is in appendixC. The ICAO Annex 3 Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation does not permit the inclusion in a TAF of a probability of less than 30 per cent that a weather phenomenon, such as fog, may occur during the forecast period. This was my thought exactly after reading Jennifers Spectator article. The MATS section on hazard alerting required ATC to prefix an FIS call with Hazard Alert in the case of a change to a component of FIS not described in a current meteorological product or NOTAM. Posted July 23, 2019. The bureau needs a big shake-up from the top down. The ATSB expects that all safety issues identified by the investigation should be addressed by the relevant organisation(s). Particular emphasis was placed on prioritising and disseminating information, including the need to document these actions to ensure an accurate record and a common understanding between controllers and supervisors. Supervisors at Melbourne Centre indicated that the BoM would often ask for more than one report of deteriorating weather to inform their decision making in relation to amending a forecast. The BoM reported that fog was not included in the 0700 TTF as the surface winds did not support the formation of fog. About Latest Weather Observations and The reduced visibility at Adelaide Airport, South Australia that led to the diversion also affected a number of other aircraft, including another B737. If you have any questions about this product, or you want any other weather or climate information, please contact us. At 1014, Velocity 1384 landed at Mildura in foggy conditions with fuel below the required reserves. When Velocity 1384 departed Brisbane for Adelaide, the TAF that was current at the time showed favourable conditions for arrival and did not require the nomination of an alternate airport. The size of the change was assessed as small and the magnitude of the change as reasonable. At 0820, Qantas735reached their latest point of safe diversion back to Sydney. You should read the important information in these notes. The crew attempted two ILS approaches before using autoland to land on runway 21 in weather conditions that were below the prescribed landing minima for the ILS. A fail operational system is a higher capability. It was also noted at the forum that, while ACARS equipment is widely fitted and used on large jet aircraft, not all Australian airline fleets are equipped with ACARS. In response, the en route controller contacted Adelaide Tower to ascertain the current conditions. The issue of verifying the claimed record hot day on 23 September 2017 is compounded by the BoMs method of measuring temperatures in particular the absence of averaging over at least one minute which is standard for electronic probes. Airservices advised that monitoring of a flight will increase if flight crew declare an emergency. At the same time, Airservices were also conducting a review of the provision of hazard alerting services to aircraft. As such, the action to not pass this information to Velocity 1384 was provided for by the Virgin dispatch manual. Airep information by ATC remains a necessary source of information for BoM and should be addressed the. Atc for any relevant weather information via the onrequest service are necessary public knowledge in the evening! Brisbane at about 0630 that morning and carried sufficient fuel for the Herbert Strong... Addressed by the investigation should be actioned whenever possible section dealing with the forecast or. 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